revolutionsoccer.net Blog

OK, so defeating the Pachuca Gophers and the Creatures from the Green Lagoon wasn’t enough to earn the Revolution automatic passage to the SuperLiga semifinals. Bummer. I admit, I’d thought it was a done deal when Khano Smith brashly struck penalty beat Pachuca goalkeeper Miguel Calero in the 97th-plus minute on Wednesday night. But then again, I honestly wasn’t counting on Chivas USA defeating Santos in the nightcap.

By all rights, they shouldn’t have. If Christian Benitez scores on an open goal in the 12th minute after rounding Goats’ ‘keeper then I say it’s game over and the Revs cruise into first place with Sunday night’s match in Fullerton, Calif. rendered meaningless other than to determine semifinal seeding.

Instead, the Ecuadorian speedster crashed his shot off of the crossbar and left the door open for Ante Razov’s eventual game winner in the second half.

So as it would happen, the Revs could still now possibly not qualify for the knockout stage of this competition – even after besting arguably the two best teams in Mexico (isn’t that the idea of this tourney, after all?). So this game means quite a lot.

Anyway, I’ve already embarrassed myself with my lack of understanding of all the possible permutations if Chivas USA beats the Revs and Pachuca downs Santos – the scenario whereby three teams finish 2-1-0. Instead I refer you to an official source that has all these things worked out – my fancy financial calculator shorted out while I was trying to punch up the probabilities…so, here, the variations are spelled are on page four, tiebreakers on pp. 6-7.

The one clear scenario I was able to extrapolate from the charts is that if the Revs beat or tie Chivas USA at Titan Stadium, then they move on. We also now know that they would face the Houston Dynamo or, more likely, Atlante if they advance. I think. Can someone please explain how Chivas Guadalajara was knocked out after beating D.C. United and Houston? Anyway, they were. And Santos, at 0-2-0, can still theoretically advance (or, they might advance, theoretically). But they probably won’t.

“Enough!” I hear you say. What about the game Sunday night? I dunno, I guess it is all put in perspective when you hear someone tried to open the door to the airplane to California at cruising altitude, eh? Bully to the Revs’ staff for handling that situation with such aplomb, by the way.

As for the match, I think it’s an eminently winnable game. You have a feeling Stevie Nic stays with the 4-4-2, given how well it’s served Sainey Nyassi and Smith and the fact that Mauricio Castro is likely not back in the lineup.

Chivas coach Preki is also now sans his big Z-factor…Brad Guzan is off to the Olympics and then Aston Villa (work permit pending). Dan “I Knew Jack and You’re No Brad Guzan” Kennedy looks to be…not as good as Guzan, meaning he hasn’t proven he can make match-saving plays like the stop on a Carlos Ruiz shot Guzan made to preserve the 1-1 draw in the Super Classico game with L.A. on July 10. We’ll see. I guess you could say he did enough to make Benitez put his shot off the bar.

The Revs already defeated Chivas USA 2-1 at Home Depot Center earlier this season in MLS play and looked thoroughly dominant in doing so. They neutralized danger men Sacha Kljestan and Razov and pretty much bossed the affair other than the stoppage-time goal by Justin “I Knew Mr. Coffee” Braun.

But one major player the Goats missed in that match was All-Star and National Teamer Jonathan Bornstein. Jonny B will have his hands full with Sainey, but then again, Nyassi will have to be disciplined and get good support from Chris Albright when Bornstein gets forward.

Razov has shown time and again he can pop up and score big goals with his cannon left foot and needs to be marked closely. Also, giving up free kicks anywhere near the box is a no-no with his decisive ability on set pieces. Not much is known in these parts about new signing Roberto “Night” Nurse other than he was a dominant goal scorer in the Mexican second division and he could start next to Razov.

Overall, the Revs will likely play a compact, possession-oriented game and look to exploit their crazy, banoodles speed on the outside. Another potential factor: Kenny Mansally scored against Chivas USA last time and he looked likely against Pachuca as well so I’m predicting a Mansally goal right here. Not right here. In the game against Chivas USA. Anyway, I mean that I think Kenny will score. Can you tell how much SuperLiga standings are confusing me?

And if the Revs do get a goal that should be enough to see them through to the semis…when you figure it out, please let me know.

By the way, who are the competition wizards who determined that a suspension due to two yellow cards accumulated in the first three games is served in the semis? Seriously, if you acknowledge the squad depth issues teams are dealing with by allowing a fourth substitute don’t you think that perhaps the slate should be wiped clean for the elimination phase, or at least discount cards from the first game? My word.

Check out the game on TeleFutura, SuperLiga2008.com or MLSnet.com. You can also hear my call here on revolutionsoccer.net and WEEI. I’ll have it all figured out by then…